Hunger and food supply problems as unintended consequences of attempts to stop COVID-19

Note that I intend to incorporate the following into a larger critique of our world’s responses to COVID-19, but have decided to publish at least some of my preliminary thoughts sooner rather than later under this more narrow heading. I have also published this on Medium.

A headline from Bloomberg reads, “World Hunger Could Double as Coronavirus Disrupts Food Supplies”. The Bloomberg article links to “A Call to Action for World Leaders” signed by a variety of organizations, who, so far as I can tell, have little in common other than a shared desire to avoid mass starvation.

The call to action warns, “COVID-19-related transport and labour disruptions are already starting to impact food security in many locations and food prices in some. Some food surplus nations have already imposed export restrictions. New restrictive rules at ports of entry and borders impede the free flow of food products and compromise the timely supply of essential agricultural inputs. Restrictions on the movement of people — while needed for public health purposes — risk shortages of farm labour at key moments in the farming cycle. The risk of major interruptions to food supplies over the coming months is growing, especially for low-income, net food-importing countries, many of which are in Sub-Saharan Africa.”

The claim that restrictions on the movement of people is “needed for public health purposes” and yet “risks shortages of farm labour at key moments in the farming cycle” comes across as a bit of a double entendre. Agriculture is also essential for public health purposes. A famine can kill far more people than any virus I can think of. But then, with people subject to censorship on platforms like Twitter for claiming that “social distancing is not effective”, saying outright that “social distancing may do more harm than good if you don’t let the food flow” would verge on possibly being viewed as improper.

The call to action further warns that with household incomes falling around the world, “it would not be hard to envisage scenarios in which the number of people suffering from hunger on a daily basis, already estimated at over 800 million, doubles over the coming months with a huge risk of increased malnutrition and child stunting.”

An estimated 9 million people die per year from hunger, so doubling that would give another 9 million people, for a total of 18 million people.

For comparison, Good Judgement Superforecaster Analytics estimates a 71% chance that, as of 31 March 2021, more than 800,000 but less than 8 million deaths attributed to COVID-19 will be reported/estimated, worldwide. I am seeing this forecast on April 9, 2020. According to 80,000 Hours, The Good Judgement project aggregates data from “superforecasters” who have a track record of having made good predictions in the past about other difficult to predict events. I am unsure what assumptions this forecast, or aggregate of forecasts, is based on, but I do not feel qualified to make my own forecast. However, there are “superforecaster commentary highlights” available on the website.

Many of the world’s poor more worried about hunger than about COVID-19

In Zimbabwe, where President Emmerson Mnangagwa has announced, “All citizens are required to stay at home, with the exception of those seeking health services, buying food, medicine and vital supplies, and those manning our essential services,” a citizen complains, “We know there is corona[virus] in the country, but we will die of hunger first if we don’t get mealie meal.” Zimbabwe’s unemployment rate, officially at least, is over 90%, with millions depending on informal jobs to put food on the table.

In Zambia, President Edgar Lungu is aware that some of his people have been saying, “We would rather die from COVID-19 than from hunger.” He asks his people to, “Please choose life,” although it is unclear from the New York Times quotation whether he believes choosing life means focusing more on the problem of hunger, or more on COVID-19. Perhaps the ambiguity was deliberate, and he meant for people to weigh the risks of COVID-19 versus hunger on an individual basis.

In Uganda, women trying to sell fruit have been beaten by police and military for defying orders to stay home. Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni has threatened that those attempting to distribute food to the vulnerable would be arrested, because such congregations would spread the virus. The opposition has warned that the urban poor may die of hunger if not given some form of relief.

In Nigeria, a mother tells the BBC, “It is hunger I am worried about, not a virus.” The BBC warns that Nigerians can transmit the virus if they do not act responsibly, but I am unclear how feeding one’s children under such circumstances qualifies as irresponsible, even though it would probably increase chances of virus transmission. Perhaps the apparent double entendre is simply the BBC’s way of getting around the UK’s harsh censorship policies with respect to COVID-19.

In Columbia, a school administrator of the indigenous Wayuu says her people fear, “that if we don’t die of the virus, we will die of hunger.” Apparently, school meals stopped being shipped at the same time the schools were closed. For some of the children, those meals were, at least until recently, their only meal of the day.

In Delhi, India, a yogurt-based drink seller, feels helpless and fears that, “hunger may kill many like us before coronavirus.” A day laborer, also in Delhi, said that his family would run out of food in a few days if he couldn’t get work. Some of India’s poor are fleeing the cities, by foot if they have to, to reach their home villages, not for fear of the virus, but for fear of starvation. One, who faced a 530 kilometer walk home if she and her family could not catch a bus, stated, “Let me tell you one thing: More people will die of hunger than from this disease.”

In Mexico, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, speaking probably more for his countryfolk than for himself, said, “We won’t die from coronavirus but from hunger.” He continues, “In Mexico, the vast majority don’t live on a salary, they don’t live from their savings nor from the government; the vast majority live day to day. … If the majority of the population stops earning income today, they simply won’t have anything to eat tomorrow.” We must understand that when he says COVID-19 is not “highly lethal”, he’s not comparing it to the flu, he’s comparing it to the possibility of widespread starvation.

Charities in the UK warn that about a million undocumented migrants, included some asylum seekers whose claims have been denied, are at risk of hunger and starvation due to the closures of charities who used to provide food to them.

Remittances, money sent by migrants working in wealthier countries to their families back home in poorer countries, have been plummeting. Arkansas Democrat Gazette reports that, “One money-transfer company in Europe sending funds to Africa saw an 80% drop in volume in a single week.” The drop in remittances is likely to leave many unable to pay for rent, water, electricity, and food, and to some extent, this already seems to be happening.

When people say that not “that many” people will die of COVID-19, that it isn’t “that dangerous”, it isn’t necessarily callousness for old people and people with pre-existing conditions. (Although it could be that.) But more likely, it’s a warning: a warning that more people could potentially die of other things, like starvation.

Food in danger of rotting in the fields or otherwise failing to reach consumers

Near Wuhan, China, some crops deemed “essential” were allowed through the quarantine. Others, such as lotus roots, not arbitrarily classified as “essential”, have been left to rot for lack of transportation out.

A headline on Marketplace.org reads, “Jobless Brits urged to ‘pick for Britain’ as COVID-19 blocks foreign farmworkers.” Evidently, about 80,000 migrants usually pick Britain’s crops this season. For a variety of reasons, including COVID-19 related travel restrictions, that number is expected to be far less this year. John Bragg of Bryants Salads Ltd. warns that if the fields are not staffed, “All this crop in our fields here will be left to rot, and it won’t be able to feed the U.K. nation at this difficult time.” The jobless and students of Britain have been asked to take the challenge of picking the crops. As of the time the article was published, only 18,000 had applied, and it remains to be seen if so many people without farm labor experience will be up to the task.

In Australia, “The fruit and vegetable industry has warned that crops may be left to rot in fields because of a major shortage of accommodation for backpackers who pick the produce.” Apparently, a number of hostels and caravan parks, who normally house these traveling workers, have closed in response to COVID-19. On top of the housing shortage, the Commonwealth has announced that they will also have to self-isolate for 14 days before beginning work — time the crops may not be able to wait.

In New Zealand, closures of restaurants and grocers leaves vegetable farmers worried their crops will go to waste unless alternative buyers can be found.

In Florida, United States, there are winter crops like squash, spinach, and lettuce rotting in the fields because the restaurants that normally buy them are either closed or operating at reduced capacity. Dairy producers in Wisconsin and Vermont have been pouring milk down drains or flooding the fields with the milk for lack of buyers. The United States response to COVID-19 has lead to a spike in some people being unable to afford groceries, and glut in food elsewhere. According to the Guardian, about half of food grown in the United States was, before the COVID-19 response, destined for restaurants, schools, stadiums, theme parks and cruise ships — all industries heavily hit by the COVID-19 response. The food supply chain seems to be mostly failing to find alternative ways to deliver these foods to consumers